Forest fires and surface burned in Catalonia decrease since 1970, despite rising temperatures and other climatic variables that raise the risk of fire. This decrease occurred due to management measures and fire prevention campaigns and awareness of the population, according to a study led by the University of Barcelona (UB) and the National Research Council (CNR, Italy), published in the scientific journal Climate Change. Researchers applying a mathematical model to discern the influence of climatic variables and human mitigation measures in forest fires. In addition, they also use this methodology to calculate how climate change will affect forest fires, and while foresee an increase in fires in the coming years, also include a decrease in the acreage burned.
The job, one of the first studies on predicting forest fires, is signed by Professor of the Department of Astronomy and Meteorology of the UB: Maria del Carmen Llasat and researchers at the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC): Marco Turco Jost von Hardenberg and Antonello Provenzale.