Forecast of the evolution of tourist activity in Catalonia
To know what will be the evolution of tourist activity in Catalonia as a result of the crisis generated by COVID-19. Specifically, it is intended to know what the forecast of the sector will be through the basic indicators: volume of tourists, mainly, and secondly, spending, employment and number of overnight stays.
Quantify the economic impact, in terms of Turnover, GDP, Labor Market, Compensation of Employees and Tax Collection, for the whole of the Catalan economy.
2020 is the year of study.
This study will be carried out in two temporary scenarios:
- Short term: summer 2020,
- Medium term: until the end of 2020.
Predictive analysis on the number of tourists (and later on the number of overnight stays, number of employed persons and expenditure) has been carried out in 4 different scenarios:
SCENARIO 1. Base scenario, now totally unreal, what would have happened (number of tourists arrived) if there had not been the COVID-19 crisis.
SCENARIO 2, 3 and 4. Creation of 3 scenarios (more or less optimistic) about the evolution of the pandemic (and its consequences in terms of mobility, opening of establishments and borders, etc).
From the different scenarios, the effects on the main macromagnitudes of the Catalan economy are also studied, using the traditional impact methodology (of analysis of direct, indirect and induced effects), using the input-output methodology.
The analysis exercise was carried out during 3 moments of the year 2020 (April, July and October), to see the review of the results as the effects of the pandemic progressed.
More information This study has been carried out by the General Directorate of Tourism, of the Department of Business and Knowledge, of the Generalitat de Catalunya