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European forecasting network
European Commission (General Directorate Economic and Financial Affairs)
2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018
Principal investigator
Manuel Artís / Jodi Suriñach
Investigative team
Jordi Suriñach / Raül Ramos / Rosina Moreno / Miquel Clar / Enrique López / Vicente Royuela / Esther Vayá
Objective
Providing short term forecasts using composite leading indicators for the most relevant macroeconomic variables and quantifying expectations using qualitative data from the European business survey and to combine short term forecasts with the results of the macro models (the euro-zone model and the multi-country models) for other time horizons. Additionally, the EFN gave some results to some questions demanded by the European Commission (DG Economic Affairs) each semester.
Methodology
A description and evaluation of the current economic conditions and main policy events, focusing both on the Euro area and on a comparative analysis of the member countries. Short-term forecasts for the main macroeconomic and financial variables. A discussion of the policy implications of these forecasts and its consequences. Thematic analyses The Euro and the European financial markets, On the Political Feasibility of the Social Security Reforms in Europe, Growth and Employment Creation in the New Economy, An analysis of the relative competitiveness of the Euro countries, The EU enlargement and regional convergence, Eastern countries and the monetary union, Labor markets in the Euro area, Asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle, Aging and the labor market
Reference:
Contract number: ECFIN/17/2003/367805 Theme:
Macroeconomic simulations and forecasts Ambit:
European