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Elaboration of macroeconomic forecasts and synthetic indicators of the catalan economy activity
Barcelona Chamber of Commerce
1991 / 1992 / 1993 / 1994 / 1995 / 1996 / 1997 / 1998 / 1999 / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008 / 2009 / 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 / 2014 / 2015 / 2016 / 2017 / 2018 / 2019 / 2020 / 2021 / 2022 / 2023
Principal investigator
Manuel Artís / Jordi Suriñach
Investigative team
Manuel Artís / Jordi Suriñach / Miquel Clar / Raül Ramos / Ernest Pons / Esther Goya
Objective
Obtaining the synthetic indicator of economic activity, as well as the business confidence indicator for Catalonia and Spain (quarterly). Obtaining annual forecasts of the main GDP components of Catalonia and Spain, for the GDP supply and demand, employment, the unemployment rate, public investment (yearly), general and subjacent inflation (monthly) for current and next year.
Methodology
Review, collection and projection of all high frequency available statistical information and regarding Catalan economy. Selection of the partial indicators, adjusting seasonality and diary effects, in order to construct synthetic indicators. Obtaining a reference chronology about the cyclical evolution of different variables. Detection of the progress or temporary differences between the partial indicators and the target variable. Design of the synthetic indicator as a combination of selected partial indicators and its validation. Development of econometric models for Catalonia and Spain, which allow to forecast the behavior of their magnitudes.
Reference:
Theme:
Macroeconomic simulations and forecasts Ambit:
Regional