From Hopeful Beginnings to Lingering Concerns: Assessing COP28's Impact on Climate and Biodiversity

A Hopeful start

COP28 started with a hopeful and ambitious target: to focus on the Paris Agreement and the goal of +1,5ºC despite low hopes. The reminder of the Paris Agreement was auspicious as the 2015 conference was a historical COP for its ambition, although it was also the one opted out by the US in 2017. 

On the biodiversity side, the focus was shared by IUCN, voicing out specific and ambitious demands.  IUCN demanded a “rapid and equitable phase out of fossil fuels and fossil fuel subsidies” while tackling “the biodiversity loss crisis in an integrated and synergistic manner”. To the Conservation union, it was primordial to “reinforce the interlinkages between the climate and biodiversity crises in COP 28 decisions”. Alongside those preoccupations, IUCN stressed a necessity to consider “the rights of the most vulnerable, particularly Indigenous peoples, women, and youth” and mentioned an outlook towards systemic change: A set of demands shared by the CBD. 

In terms of social demands, the opening joint statement began with the following pledge: “Recognizing the global nature of the climate emergency and its varying impacts across communities and societies, we want to emphasize the crucial importance of an inclusive, transparent, and respectful setting for all participants to engage in the COP process.” 

Historical achievements for a COP 

All these elements foresaw unprecedented outcomes for a COP, and indeed historical achievements were made for such an event. For the first time, a global agreement “to transitioning away from fossil fuels” was made. Such a victory might seem unimportant, but it is the first time that it is so precisely pinpointed and included into the “world balance” (or “global stocktake”) from the landmark Paris Agreement. This document aims at compiling and evaluating the collective progress made by countries in achieving the agreed objectives. Above all, the final pledge emphasized the focus on a rapid transition out of fossil fuels.  This transition will notably pass through a "tripling of renewable energy capacities and a doubling of energy efficiency by 2030". This must be realized bearing in mind the very difficult task of a “just transition” where energy poverty and ruthless extractivism must be avoided. Another key step for climate justice was already achieved on the second day: a new agreement regarding the implementation of a fund intended to address the costs associated with the loss and damage caused by climate change. This is specifically important for the historically low emitting but economically most vulnerable countries. 

After the COP15 biodiversity summit in December 2022, climate talks focusing on the link with biodiversity loss have been paramount. This biodiversity summit saw the establishment of the groundbreaking Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). Thus, “COP28 hosted an unprecedented number of high-level events on the links between climate change and nature loss”. 

During these events, the UAE COP28 presidency and China COP15 presidency surprised the international community by pioneering Joint Statement on Climate, Nature, and People, committing to coherence between national climate pledges (NDCs) and national nature plans on biodiversity (NBSAPs). This was followed by an unforeseen announcement by China of joining the High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People (HACN&P) on Nature’s day  

Loopholes and mixed feelings about the deal: a long way to go as the window of opportunity is closing 

Despite these achievements, one pebble in the shoe is raising concerns: the agreement doesn’t plan a fossil fuel phase out that would allow staying below the threshold of +1.5ºC agreed in the Paris COP21. Instead, it uses the terms “transitioning away” and “net-zero by 2050”. This was perceived by many as an incrementalist loophole that permits to continue fossil fuel use and extraction for a large period.  

In fact, the closing document presents a clause on “transition fuels”. For the international community, this fuels concerns about encouraging unsafe transitioning methods instead: carbon capture and storage, nuclear and “low-emission fuels”. The risk pointed out there is that this clause could allow for ongoing expansion of coal, oil, and gas projects.  This led to mixed sentiments surrounding the agreement, as well as the feeling that there is still a considerable distance to cover, given the narrowing window of opportunity. Similarly, it happens with the topic of Loss and damages which promised a hopeful agreement but, it lacks proper financing. This is also the case for the insufficient finances to support fossil fuel phase out, nor is there a concrete set of equitable measures where richer and historical polluting countries could phase out quicker. 

Most importantly, COP28 conclusions, the world's largest Climate Change event, remain non-binding and based on countries’ voluntary proposals. Although countries that signed the landmark Paris Agreement are legally bound to  “hold global temperature rises to “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, while “pursuing efforts” to limit heating to 1.5C”, the pathway to those goals is left non-binding. To meet these goals, the political pledges announced at COP28 are non-binding national targets, hence the fear of false solutions for Nationally determined contribution (NDC) on a global level. 

Lastly, Biodiversity is frequently overlooked in these dialogues, except in relation to the concept of biodiversity credits as analyzed in this article by the Institute of Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). The latter gives the example of deforestation: focusing on faulty technology such as carbon capture that fails to recognize the shared challenges that countries have faced in addressing tropical deforestation. As they point out, deforestation is “the major source of annual land-use change emissions, and a significant driver of biodiversity loss.” 

In conclusion, COP28 commenced with optimism, achieving historic milestones such as a global commitment to transition away from fossil fuels and addressing loss and damage costs. The event emphasized the crucial link between climate change and biodiversity loss, marked by unprecedented joint statements and commitments from key nations. However, concerns linger on loopholes around "transition fuels," as the agreement falls short on a clear fossil fuel phase-out plan. This prompts mixed sentiments and a realization of the long road ahead to meet the Paris Agreement's ambitious targets, with financial and binding commitment challenges still unresolved. 

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To expand the view: 

• Summary of Global Climate Action at COP 28. This summary document provides an overview of the key outcomes of global climate action across the four pillars set by the COP 28 Presidency: i) fast-tracking a just, orderly, and equitable energy transition; ii) fixing climate finance; iii) focusing on people, lives, and livelihoods; and iv) underpinning everything with full inclusivity. 
  
  
• COP28: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Dubai Nearly every country in the world has agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” – the main driver of climate change – at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai. 
  
  
• Enhancing alignment of biodiversity and climate action at COP28 and beyond the UAE Presidency has emphasised 'Nature' for COP28, with a variety of high-level events and announcements. This focus follows growing momentum on biodiversity and ecosystems within the climate negotiations. However, challenges remain in truly responding to the scientific imperative to protect and restore ecosystems and biodiversity while pursuing steep, rapid, and sustained greenhouse gas emissions reductions, without which the Paris Agreement’s and Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF)’s goals will be compromised.