Work Packages
Work package 3
Micro-based projections of population aging in Europe
WP Leader
WIFO
WP3 will be built on the cross-sectional evidence of intergenerational inequality developed under WP2, by:
- Considering the influence that established trends underlying the changing demographic profile in Europe will have on consumption, production and intergenerational inequality;
- Exploring the opportunities that the changing demographic profile in Europe present in terms of labour market and welfare policies.
Create projections to the future by building on the existing dynamic microsimulation model, microWELT, developed in WELTRANSIM project. MicroWELT currently projects, in continuous time, a range of evolving population characteristics (including education, fertility and mortality. This model will be extended to project family-specific histories for key financial statistics, including income, consumption, and savings for 8 selected European countries: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Slovenia, Spain, and the UK. Countries have been carefully chosen to reflect diverse national experiences of population aging in Europe. The projections will provide evidence to consider the policy scenarios.
Tasks
- Preparing model inputs.
- Revise microWELT to project data for consumption, labour income and investment income.
- Revise microWELT to project data for disposable income and savings.
- Accounting for pension incomes.
- Baseline model projections from 2010 to 2050.
- Projections for selected policy counterfactuals.
- Open-source release of model.
Research Outputs
- Dynamic comparative microsimulation model for eight selected countries in an online open-source platform