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Extreme value statistical modeling behind complex systems and critical systems
Isabel Serra Mochales (isabel.serra@bsc.es)
Researcher at BSC, Barcelona
Statistical modeling of extreme events has been traditionally based on extreme value theory within probability theory. Current methodological techniques must be extended to cover new challenges. High-dimensional data sets exhibiting non-trivial conditional probabilities represent one of such challenges. In a sense, statistical developers build models under a baseline model or deterministic model plus noise model scheme. This approach entails a trade-off between the accuracy of loading in one part or another. In complex systems, the basal model is recommended to derive from some physical law. An additional challenge is to manage uncertainty close to criticality.